A few years ago my coworkers scoffed when I said Europe was doomed and going to become third world. I was really short Europe without knowing too many details, mainly short socialism. Recently we went to do a quick tour of the PIGS countries because I had a big bet on- Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain.
Similarities: Really expensive gas, like 8-9 USD a gallon. People stay up really late (except maybe Ireland). For example we would walk into “the best tapas place in Barcelona” after 1AM. Many restaurants don’t even open till after 8:30pm.
Differences: In order of cheapness, the countries were Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Spain. Lisbon seemed worst off. I didn’t see as many young people and it was like an older, hilly, less polished version of Barcelona. Spain surprisingly seemed to be doing amazingly, though we were in Madrid and Barcelona which might not be super representative. Barcelona was really beautiful. It was extremely clean and livable, filled with drunk tourists.
And now I feel sad Europe is doomed and wish they wouldn’t collapse. Now I feel like they can do some things in the next year or so to stave off doom for a while longer. It’s such a waste- Europe is so old and cool! But things like this happen all the time. Civilizations, countries, companies- everything ages, fails to adapt, and evaporative cooling always happens: high energy people leave, however you define high energy.
I was thinking about Eliezer’s evaporative cooling idea for human groups since learning Eduardo Saverin gave up his US citizenship. Anyone who gives up their US citizenship is no joke one way or another- politically, ideologically, financially… But almost no one leaves the USA forever. Europe, however- educated Europeans are leaving their countries. And anyone who disagrees sufficiently with policy also leaves. So what remains are people who don’t have the resources to leave, or who really agree with the policies, so that the remaining group becomes increasingly entrenched ideologically. Does anyone return after the policy changes? Do refugees eventually return to their countries?
Ways to stave off group cooling:
1) Be picky about who you let in initially, maybe continuously raising the average bar.
2) Don’t force outliers out (maybe make it easy for them to form subgroups within the original group?).
3) Do something to heat up the group once in a while?
We’re going to Iceland and some other places soon. Let me know if you’re going to be there too!
upon your Greece post, I guessed you were doing a PIGS specific tour.. funny. I can't believe you found Barna clean? I thought it was quite dirty.. but maybe because you live in NYC… 😛
Interesting note on evaporative cooling. Is it different from what we (in the developing countries refer to as) Brain Drain? Slightly. We send students to study abroad in western countries in hopes to extract some of that knowledge/skills… but slight misfire, as these students acquire new/foreign knowledge and culture, what is back home remains stagnant. Unable to apply themselves in home environment, a lot of them choose to pursue career path overseas (like me). Many countries are making effort to try to reverse the flow of talent. Countries like India, having more growth now, is seeing return of migrants. Also possibly because of strong cultural and family ties.
From what I see myself, migrants rarely return to the motherland. The chinese and indian people in malaysia are there to stay, the people who settle+buyhouse+make family rarely go back. Large number of my coworkers migrated from Asia and East Europe. They're never going back.
If I can guess the two basic things that could motivate people to cross over continents, they are Money (rational influence) and Love (irrational influence).. If you can't pay your original group to stay, you need an irrational influence to make them stay ie illusion of love/family/tradition. Along with your suggestions, this is how Japanese and Korean societies keep their shit together and keep outsiders out.
I had never felt sorry for Europe before but now I see how nice everyone is. Life goes on, I guess. I also preferred Madrid to Barcelona! We loved horchatas.
The thing evaporative cooling would predict is that the remaining culture would become more whatever-it-is as outliers leave. For Europe, what does that mean? More complacent? More socialist? I wonder to what extent it's happening in each country. Why do people leave the USA? Taxes?
Thanks for the travel tips! Your couch surfing experiences inspired me to get an airbnb account but I didn't end up using it because normal hotels were actually cheaper. Have you ever tried airbnb?
Didn't get a chance to try the fast train. I think travel ended up boring me, started watching True Blood ( omg have you seen this show?? The show seems like it's about vampires until a 40 year old guy suddenly turns into a wolf and walks around naked. Really good stuff). I'm going to try a totally exhausting vacation where I have like a 10% chance of being hospitalized or hooked up to oxygen or debating eating the corpse of one of the people who didn't survive stage 1 of whatever we were doing.
I wonder if I'd ever live in a country outside the USA. I love America and everyone I know is here… I'm amazed by immigrants who go somewhere without knowing anybody. It takes a lot of courage.
Europe is tragic, but that is what draws me in more.. it's like real life drama you know? And the fact that I still have friends in Madrid, Spain, and Athens.. it's really fcked up. But I desperately want to know what happens next..
I have an airbnb account but never used it. You're right that hotels can be cheaper. I can't seem to grasp airbnb. If I want comfort, I get a hotel room.. CS is not merely free random accommodation, it's actually pretty selective and discriminating (because it's free, the price is fixed at zero, so you can be super picky about your host/guests) this is where magic happens between strangers. It is like sex, love and prostitution. You are more picky about who you have sex with for free, and you commit yourself emotionally to this person. For a fee, you have little to lose if you lower your standards for picking a guest or host. When I couchsurf I seek that emotional bond with others. It's not completely random. With airbnb, I find that the pricing distracts me, that I sort by location and price rather than the personality of the host.. in which case I would just rather go with a hotel. And even in Barcelona I stayed at a hotel but I still went out to meet couchsurfers and other travelers. im more interested in hosting on airbnb.. as the incentive is vastly greater (generating $ from underutilized space) than to a traveler (ur right the discount doesn't payoff that much).
Started to watch True Blood a while back but I never got the appeal even though I love vampire stories. Speaking of, while walking around the Barri Gotic at night is rather creepy, I fantasize that vampires and gargoyles lurk in the shadows and corners of the narrow streets.
upon your Greece post, I guessed you were doing a PIGS specific tour.. funny. I can't believe you found Barna clean? I thought it was quite dirty.. but maybe because you live in NYC… 😛
Interesting note on evaporative cooling. Is it different from what we (in the developing countries refer to as) Brain Drain? Slightly. We send students to study abroad in western countries in hopes to extract some of that knowledge/skills… but slight misfire, as these students acquire new/foreign knowledge and culture, what is back home remains stagnant. Unable to apply themselves in home environment, a lot of them choose to pursue career path overseas (like me). Many countries are making effort to try to reverse the flow of talent. Countries like India, having more growth now, is seeing return of migrants. Also possibly because of strong cultural and family ties.
From what I see myself, migrants rarely return to the motherland. The chinese and indian people in malaysia are there to stay, the people who settle+buyhouse+make family rarely go back. Large number of my coworkers migrated from Asia and East Europe. They're never going back.
If I can guess the two basic things that could motivate people to cross over continents, they are Money (rational influence) and Love (irrational influence).. If you can't pay your original group to stay, you need an irrational influence to make them stay ie illusion of love/family/tradition. Along with your suggestions, this is how Japanese and Korean societies keep their shit together and keep outsiders out.
I had never felt sorry for Europe before but now I see how nice everyone is. Life goes on, I guess. I also preferred Madrid to Barcelona! We loved horchatas.
The thing evaporative cooling would predict is that the remaining culture would become more whatever-it-is as outliers leave. For Europe, what does that mean? More complacent? More socialist? I wonder to what extent it's happening in each country. Why do people leave the USA? Taxes?
Thanks for the travel tips! Your couch surfing experiences inspired me to get an airbnb account but I didn't end up using it because normal hotels were actually cheaper. Have you ever tried airbnb?
Didn't get a chance to try the fast train. I think travel ended up boring me, started watching True Blood ( omg have you seen this show?? The show seems like it's about vampires until a 40 year old guy suddenly turns into a wolf and walks around naked. Really good stuff). I'm going to try a totally exhausting vacation where I have like a 10% chance of being hospitalized or hooked up to oxygen or debating eating the corpse of one of the people who didn't survive stage 1 of whatever we were doing.
I wonder if I'd ever live in a country outside the USA. I love America and everyone I know is here… I'm amazed by immigrants who go somewhere without knowing anybody. It takes a lot of courage.
Europe is tragic, but that is what draws me in more.. it's like real life drama you know? And the fact that I still have friends in Madrid, Spain, and Athens.. it's really fcked up. But I desperately want to know what happens next..
I have an airbnb account but never used it. You're right that hotels can be cheaper. I can't seem to grasp airbnb. If I want comfort, I get a hotel room.. CS is not merely free random accommodation, it's actually pretty selective and discriminating (because it's free, the price is fixed at zero, so you can be super picky about your host/guests) this is where magic happens between strangers. It is like sex, love and prostitution. You are more picky about who you have sex with for free, and you commit yourself emotionally to this person. For a fee, you have little to lose if you lower your standards for picking a guest or host. When I couchsurf I seek that emotional bond with others. It's not completely random. With airbnb, I find that the pricing distracts me, that I sort by location and price rather than the personality of the host.. in which case I would just rather go with a hotel. And even in Barcelona I stayed at a hotel but I still went out to meet couchsurfers and other travelers. im more interested in hosting on airbnb.. as the incentive is vastly greater (generating $ from underutilized space) than to a traveler (ur right the discount doesn't payoff that much).
Started to watch True Blood a while back but I never got the appeal even though I love vampire stories. Speaking of, while walking around the Barri Gotic at night is rather creepy, I fantasize that vampires and gargoyles lurk in the shadows and corners of the narrow streets.
Wow great analogy! I think you just persuaded me to try couch surfing ( why pay for sex? 😛 ).
upon your Greece post, I guessed you were doing a PIGS specific tour.. funny. I can’t believe you found Barna clean? I thought it was quite dirty.. but maybe because you live in NYC… 😛
Interesting note on evaporative cooling. Is it different from what we (in the developing countries refer to as) Brain Drain? Slightly. We send students to study abroad in western countries in hopes to extract some of that knowledge/skills… but slight misfire, as these students acquire new/foreign knowledge and culture, what is back home remains stagnant. Unable to apply themselves in home environment, a lot of them choose to pursue career path overseas (like me). Many countries are making effort to try to reverse the flow of talent. Countries like India, having more growth now, is seeing return of migrants. Also possibly because of strong cultural and family ties.
From what I see myself, migrants rarely return to the motherland. The chinese and indian people in malaysia are there to stay, the people who settle+buyhouse+make family rarely go back. Large number of my coworkers migrated from Asia and East Europe. They’re never going back.
If I can guess the two basic things that could motivate people to cross over continents, they are Money (rational influence) and Love (irrational influence).. If you can’t pay your original group to stay, you need an irrational influence to make them stay ie illusion of love/family/tradition. Along with your suggestions, this is how Japanese and Korean societies keep their shit together and keep outsiders out.