There was a period when every day someone would ask me why there wasn’t another HPMOR.
“When is Eliezer going to publish the next chapter? It’s been ages!”
“Stop asking me. I don’t know any more than you do. Maybe he’s busy with his 3 girlfriends- sadly he’s apparently not working on HPMOR every moment of his life. I am not privy to Eliezer’s every thought and daily agenda.”
This person would then generally begin complaining about how there would probably never be another HPMOR while I would begin an internal monologue with my fist of death. Many will never know how I grappled against my dark side for their sake.
Anyway the last time I was in the Bay area I decided to drop in on a rationality workshop at the Center for Applied Rationality to see exactly what it was that Eliezer was up to instead of HPMOR.
My genius friends, even the ones I got into HPMOR, mocked me for going to the rationality workshop.
“They’re going to brainwash you into donating millions to their AI research.”
“Nancy, can I come too so I can rock the boat and mock them for their singularity ideas?”
“Nancy’s going to some rationality class that teaches how to rationalize your crazy beliefs.”
I didn’t know what to expect, because, as far as I could tell, self-described rationalists were not really getting anywhere particularly awesome in any arenas in life; instead according to Isaacson it was the reality-distortionists who were dominating.
But the class was actually totally awesome! The above is a photo of one of the lecturers talking about thought experiments, a topic I’ll write about later. Anna (not pictured) taught us about using numbers to help make decisions.
Anna gave the example of figuring out if you should buy a faster microwave that could shave off 2 minutes a day in cooking time over the course of the microwave’s life, say 2 years. If you value your time at $50 an hour and the cost of getting the faster microwave is less than 2 minutes per day * 2 years * $50 per hour, then you should get the microwave.
Another example is if you are researching airline prices and wondering how much more time you should spend looking for a better deal. If you think you could save $100 if you research for another hour and you value your time at $100/hour, then you should spend less than (probably much less than) 1 more hour looking for a better deal.
Because Dilip had remarked to me that young people shouldn’t think their time was worthless, especially if they planned to be rich, because then one’s time is worth a lot more in expectation, I asked Anna, “If you think you’re going to be making a lot more money in the future, then you should value your current time as higher in expectation?”
Anna said, “Yes. That’s an error many college kids make, not realizing they’re going to be making 6 digits in a year or so and continuing to value their time as though it’s worth $10 an hour.”
“So if I believe I’m going to be a billionaire then I should value my time as crazily high in expectation and buy every new time saving device?”
“…Do you believe you’re going to be a billionaire?”
“Yes.”
“That’s kind of hard to do…”
“Maybe just hundreds of millions then.”
As a result of this particular lesson I now feel totally guiltless about owning 2 iPads, 2 iPhone 4S’s, and 7 kindles (each a different model) and extremely guilty about watching silly movies and getting manicures. So yeah, no more nail art and I still haven’t seen Madagascar 3…
A) you shouldn't be cooking anything for more than 2 minutes in the microwave anyway (unless maybe you're defrosting, in which case the slowness is deliberate, 2) your examples assume no multitasking (I usually put things in the microwave and spend the next minute doing something else) and d) is it rational to think you have an accurate value of your time in money (and of course that value is variable over time and your ability to predict how long things will take and what benefit you'll get from them is probably not great).
I guess what I'm saying is that these rationalists seem to be irrationally assuming a simplified model that is probably less accurate than just doing what you see happy people did, or whatever you feel like.
Yeah I don't know what to think of all the time I waste on fun stuff. I think I think this advice is like a rule of thumb way of measuring between alternatives and not rigorous principles for people to program out their lives like robots. Rationality has this connotation of emotionless-ness to me but I think that's not what it's all about. Sometimes it makes more sense to me if I think about it as wisdom instead of rationality.
Making beet chips or sweet potato chips DOES take more than 2 minutes, AND you do kind of need to keep half an eye on them or they can explode into flame… hm, maybe rationality says I should just pay for pre-packaged Terra chips
If someone argues that x is "only rational" then I somehow feel compelled to argue with them. But I wanted to be openminded about what CFAR had to teach me so thinking about the ideas as "ways of thinking about decisions" rather than "rational" made it more palatable.
The word rationality ironically makes it harder for me to think objectively because if I disagree with or don't understand something framed as "rational" then I feel defensive because it implies I'm being irrational, and puh-lease I'm not irrational you're irrational!
I haven't thought that much about the relationship between rationality and emotions. I think Marvin Minsky would say emotions are ways of thinking and rationality is… a way of thinking consistently to achieve ones values? I don't know but I find it's easier to go through life if I don't try to view the two states as opposites even though they seem like they might be in separate camps.
Lisa Streit You make your own chips? You guys are nuts.
I was reading about how emotions are necessary to make decisions. It described how some people had gone through some type of brain damage, that left them with no emotional response to situations. They showed the patients cards to elicit emotions, and their brain waves wouldn't show normal responses. The person would be unable to do their job or anything because they couldn't make a decision. they would spend 30mins or more deciding simple things, like how to walk to the store. the author said when he interviewed patients they would even describe all the pros and cons, and even after left for an hour they couldn't make a choice. My take away was that rationality and emotions are connected, not opposites.
The whispernet is free other than the cost of buying the device that has it enabled, ie a flat fee. I do have the enabled versions. I have a lot of kindles bc I get the new models plus the screens tend to break- I probably read in conditions they're not designed for.
Sent from my iPhone
A) you shouldn't be cooking anything for more than 2 minutes in the microwave anyway (unless maybe you're defrosting, in which case the slowness is deliberate, 2) your examples assume no multitasking (I usually put things in the microwave and spend the next minute doing something else) and d) is it rational to think you have an accurate value of your time in money (and of course that value is variable over time and your ability to predict how long things will take and what benefit you'll get from them is probably not great).
I guess what I'm saying is that these rationalists seem to be irrationally assuming a simplified model that is probably less accurate than just doing what you see happy people did, or whatever you feel like.
Yeah I don't know what to think of all the time I waste on fun stuff. I think I think this advice is like a rule of thumb way of measuring between alternatives and not rigorous principles for people to program out their lives like robots. Rationality has this connotation of emotionless-ness to me but I think that's not what it's all about. Sometimes it makes more sense to me if I think about it as wisdom instead of rationality.
Making beet chips or sweet potato chips DOES take more than 2 minutes, AND you do kind of need to keep half an eye on them or they can explode into flame… hm, maybe rationality says I should just pay for pre-packaged Terra chips
If someone argues that x is "only rational" then I somehow feel compelled to argue with them. But I wanted to be openminded about what CFAR had to teach me so thinking about the ideas as "ways of thinking about decisions" rather than "rational" made it more palatable.
The word rationality ironically makes it harder for me to think objectively because if I disagree with or don't understand something framed as "rational" then I feel defensive because it implies I'm being irrational, and puh-lease I'm not irrational you're irrational!
I haven't thought that much about the relationship between rationality and emotions. I think Marvin Minsky would say emotions are ways of thinking and rationality is… a way of thinking consistently to achieve ones values? I don't know but I find it's easier to go through life if I don't try to view the two states as opposites even though they seem like they might be in separate camps.
Lisa Streit You make your own chips? You guys are nuts.
but wait, how is 2 ipads and 2 iphone 4s time saving?
One phone's verizon, the other's unlocked. I think it's only shaved off a few microseconds, if that, when you count the time it took to buy and configure them. One iPad is specifically for drawing. I had need of extra devices at one time but I don't know if they're useful anymore. Mainly I keep upgrading to new things, something I felt slightly guilty about but now feel like it's fine to automatically buy the newest whatever if I just set my expected future net worth to N (which may be irrational, I probably need more rationality classes!).
I get scolded for automatically upgrading apple products because I'm fueling apple's overpriced dominance. But I feel apple deserves $ bc they invented stuff that everyone else rips off after making some minor change. And I share (obviously to a lesser degree) their meticulous obsession over design elements such as configurable kerning. And apple's bluetooth symbol inspired me to create my own rune. I do also have a windows machine though.
I listened to a podcast on apple the other day, really interesting. Did you read "In the Plex" or have a book to recommend that accurately reflects Google?
Well, I think if you upgrade and sell off the old one, you prob spend only $100-$200 per year of use (of macbook or ipad… unsure of depreciation on iphone). That's not bad at all for a leasing strategy
I have never sold off any stuff I don't want. Mostly I throw it away or give it to someone. I don't feel like i have time to sell off stuff! Maybe I should use one of those sites you pointed me to… but I normally don't do any annoying tasks. In Chicago I had an assistant but I haven't had one in NYC.
TaskRabbit!
but wait, how is 2 ipads and 2 iphone 4s time saving?
One phone's verizon, the other's unlocked. I think it's only shaved off a few microseconds, if that, when you count the time it took to buy and configure them. One iPad is specifically for drawing. I had need of extra devices at one time but I don't know if they're useful anymore. Mainly I keep upgrading to new things, something I felt slightly guilty about but now feel like it's fine to automatically buy the newest whatever if I just set my expected future net worth to N (which may be irrational, I probably need more rationality classes!).
I get scolded for automatically upgrading apple products because I'm fueling apple's overpriced dominance. But I feel apple deserves $ bc they invented stuff that everyone else rips off after making some minor change. And I share (obviously to a lesser degree) their meticulous obsession over design elements such as configurable kerning. And apple's bluetooth symbol inspired me to create my own rune. I do also have a windows machine though.
I listened to a podcast on apple the other day, really interesting. Did you read "In the Plex" or have a book to recommend that accurately reflects Google?
Well, I think if you upgrade and sell off the old one, you prob spend only $100-$200 per year of use (of macbook or ipad… unsure of depreciation on iphone). That's not bad at all for a leasing strategy
I have never sold off any stuff I don't want. Mostly I throw it away or give it to someone. I don't feel like i have time to sell off stuff! Maybe I should use one of those sites you pointed me to… but I normally don't do any annoying tasks. In Chicago I had an assistant but I haven't had one in NYC.
TaskRabbit!
wait, 7 kindles. I kind of want to get a second kindle. some times I want the keyboard and sometimes I don't… you make it sound like I should get both.
you haven't seen madagascar 3? I haven't seen 2! must keep mov'in.
Don't get the touch one! The touchscreen sometimes doesn't work correctly to my annoyance. Get the keyboard one.
Lemurs! I liked 2 !
Nancy Hua Somehow when I first read this I didn't notice that you have SEVEN kindles. Do you pay for wireless (not wifi) service on all of those devices?
Nancy Hua Somehow when I first read this I didn't notice that you have SEVEN kindles. Do you pay for wireless (not wifi) service on all of those devices?
wait, 7 kindles. I kind of want to get a second kindle. some times I want the keyboard and sometimes I don't… you make it sound like I should get both.
you haven't seen madagascar 3? I haven't seen 2! must keep mov'in.
I was reading about how emotions are necessary to make decisions. It described how some people had gone through some type of brain damage, that left them with no emotional response to situations. They showed the patients cards to elicit emotions, and their brain waves wouldn't show normal responses. The person would be unable to do their job or anything because they couldn't make a decision. they would spend 30mins or more deciding simple things, like how to walk to the store. the author said when he interviewed patients they would even describe all the pros and cons, and even after left for an hour they couldn't make a choice. My take away was that rationality and emotions are connected, not opposites.
Don't get the touch one! The touchscreen sometimes doesn't work correctly to my annoyance. Get the keyboard one.
Lemurs! I liked 2 !
Nancy Hua Somehow when I first read this I didn't notice that you have SEVEN kindles. Do you pay for wireless (not wifi) service on all of those devices?
The whispernet is free other than the cost of buying the device that has it enabled, ie a flat fee. I do have the enabled versions. I have a lot of kindles bc I get the new models plus the screens tend to break- I probably read in conditions they're not designed for.
Sent from my iPhone
BTW, reading comments on this thing is a struggle. There are like 4 layers, with some just repetitions of others, and the most recent comments (the ones I want to read) hidden under small "read more" bars.
True dat. I am trying to find a better widget. This one has an update pending- I'll see if that improves anything. This whole site is in a state of suspended weirdness until I return from travel. For now if you hit "[number of] replies" on the bottom of the post it'll take you to the post link which has replies sorted by recentness (at bottom of page) cross posted as wordpress replies (in addition to and below fb replies).
BTW, reading comments on this thing is a struggle. There are like 4 layers, with some just repetitions of others, and the most recent comments (the ones I want to read) hidden under small "read more" bars.
True dat. I am trying to find a better widget. This one has an update pending- I'll see if that improves anything. This whole site is in a state of suspended weirdness until I return from travel. For now if you hit "[number of] replies" on the bottom of the post it'll take you to the post link which has replies sorted by recentness (at bottom of page) cross posted as wordpress replies (in addition to and below fb replies).
BTW, reading comments on this thing is a struggle. There are like 4 layers, with some just repetitions of others, and the most recent comments (the ones I want to read) hidden under small “read more” bars.
wait, 7 kindles. I kind of want to get a second kindle. some times I want the keyboard and sometimes I don’t… you make it sound like I should get both.
you haven’t seen madagascar 3? I haven’t seen 2! must keep mov’in.
A) you shouldn’t be cooking anything for more than 2 minutes in the microwave anyway (unless maybe you’re defrosting, in which case the slowness is deliberate, 2) your examples assume no multitasking (I usually put things in the microwave and spend the next minute doing something else) and d) is it rational to think you have an accurate value of your time in money (and of course that value is variable over time and your ability to predict how long things will take and what benefit you’ll get from them is probably not great).
I guess what I’m saying is that these rationalists seem to be irrationally assuming a simplified model that is probably less accurate than just doing what you see happy people did, or whatever you feel like.
but wait, how is 2 ipads and 2 iphone 4s time saving?